Bitcoin sores above $52K and Wall Street ETF's are struggling to get their hands on #BTC because no one wants to sell Bitcoin, even at these prices. When will that change?
And when will Retail return.
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Despite retail crypto giants like Robinhood and Coinbase experience revenue growth, retail participation remains muted. Investors burned by scams and pump and dump ponzis need a higher price to reignite the flames of speculation. And it's unclear if $50K or Bitcoin passing the previous ATH is what will shift the market.
But the battle hardened retail still here aren't selling or taking profits.
In fact, the only people looking to sell are Genesis to pay off debts. But even $1.3 B in supply is no match for the hungry, hungry ETF hippos. If the existing pace continues, they will buy up that supply in a week or so. ETF's buy at any price. It's a one way machine - buy, buy, buy.
And there is no indication that they are slowing down. None.
And until the ETF Options market opens up (still in pending approval), expect more action to the upside.
Back to Bitcoin.
Price action remains bullish. And despite Bitcoin climbing into the RSI Red Zone, there are few signs this momentum will fade. And options suggest there is more upside to be found, with calls being sold for $60K and higher.
Will we see vol sellers get burned? Time will tell.
Remember, there is no Bitcoin. No one is selling (Bitcoin Supply Shock?). And this is creating supply shock that propels prices higher. ETF's will struggle to get their hands on more Bitcoin as the shock intensities.
Don't be fooled by perpetual liquidations of shorts. While retail use these products for outsized gains, sophisticated traders are using them to run a cash and carry trade, hedging the downside risk. Traders can still be profitable with their shorts getting stopped out.
Returning to TradFi markets, DXY remains elevated but the risk seems low of a near-term market shakeout. Don't sleep on what the dollar might mean for a sell-off. Importantly, it's also a risk-on sign if it falls below $100.
But the DXY isn't the only detail to watch on TradFI.
New guidance allows new dealers to participate in treasury auctions, expanding the number of buyers. And demand for treasuries remains strong. Now the market is dropping expectations for rate hikes and adjusting to "higher for longer". Or at least "elevated for a while".
That doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. The CoinCall Options Trade continues to perform and there is a liquidity play that needs to be on the radar of all sophisticated traders.
Listen up.
Chapters:
00:00:00 - At What Price Does Retail Return?
00:05:50 - Court Clears Sale of $1.3 B GBTC
00:08:22 - When Will ETF Volume Trail Off
00:12:42 - Bitcoin Spot, Perps, and Options All Bullish
00:20:02 - No One is Selling Until This Happens
00:28:00 - Bitcoin Perpetuals Hedging the Downside
00:31:30 - DXY, Yields and More
00:43:25 - The CoinCall Options Trade
00:47:07 - The Liquidity End Game Play
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Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
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